Premier League Xg Expected Goals Scorelines

We summarize Premier League events in a less traditional way by providing an xG results table, Infogol fairness rating, and noteworthy data.

What are Infogol’s Equity Ratings?

We are trying to rank the results of each match by comparing the actual result with the range of possible outcomes of the game that could arise, based on the number and quality of moments created by each side in the game.

This value scales from 0 to 100, where 100 represents those matters when the process most accurately reflects the real score, and lower scores indicate a match in which the score is not fully reflected in the balance of chances created.

Manchester United 3-1 Arsenal
Manchester United made the most of good scoring opportunities to score a fourth victory in a row, while Premier League leaders Arsenal saw their victorious start to the season ended at Old Trafford.

Marcus Rashford’s double and Anthony’s dream debut goal, signed on deadline day, secured three points, but in a 3-1 victory quality was more important than quantity.

Eric Ten Hag’s team created five big moments in the game, averaging 0.18 xG per kick.

Manchester United’s shot map against Arsenal
Arsenal tried to reduce the deficit, but their frustration was obvious as United defended stubbornly until the final whistle, limiting the visitors to only unlikely moments.

Brighton 5-2 Leicester

Leicester, who occupy the last place in the standings, could not ease the growing pressure on head coach Brendan Rodgers after their winless start was extended by a crushing 5-2 defeat by Brighton.

Leandro Trossard’s goal in the second half and Alexis McAllister’s double – a penalty kick (0.80 xG), followed by a stunning free kick at the end of the match (0.05 xG) – doomed the Foxes to a fifth consecutive defeat in the Premier League.

McAllister was also banned from “thunderbolt” with a low probability after referee Tony Harrington viewed the video on the monitor from the side of the field for offside.

Leicester were outnumbered throughout the second period and have now scored just one point out of a possible 18, which led to the “Rogers Out” banner being unfurled at the end of the match by disgruntled guests in regular time.

Everton 0-0 Liverpool
The points were shared in an exciting Merseyside derby, in which Jordan Pickford and Alisson played superbly as goalkeepers, hit the goal four times (Liverpool – three, Everton – one) and made 37 shots.

This was the largest number of hits to wooden structures, as well as the largest number of shots inflicted in a Premier League match this season.

The Infogol model calculated that the probability that the match would end goalless was only 3% based on the xG totals scored by each team, with a 1:1 draw or a 2:1 away win. The most likely outcomes are 9%.

A snapshot of the Merseyside Derby
But while that may be true, Liverpool were largely limited to unlikely chances due to Everton’s organised and dogged defence.

Their 23 attempts on goal brought an average HG of only 0.08 per shot, and the Reds could not create a single “big chance” (35%+) at their best opportunity – despite the fact that Luis Diaz, Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah hit the post, coming on as a substitute for Diogo Jota (0.30) of the close distance deep during the stop.

By far, the best chance in the match fell to Everton debutant Neil Mopey (0.72), whom Alisson brilliantly denied.

Ultimately, the play of the Brazilian goalkeeper and his opponent Pickford, as well as the hard call of VAR when Conor Cody sent the ball into the net in the 70th minute before Brain admitted offside, were the main reasons that the match ended goalless.

After six matches, Liverpool are already six points behind the top of the table, having played a game more.

The fourth draw in a row means that Everton remains winless this season, but goes beyond the relegation zone.

Brentford 5-2 Leeds

Ivan Toni’s hat-trick proved decisive in an exciting match with quality moments in West London.

A penalty, a free kick and an impromptu finish by the striker increased his half-century history of goals for Brentford: now he has 52 goals in 96 matches.

This was only the second time he scored from outside the penalty area in the league for the Bees, with most of his attempts being chances with a high penalty probability, as evidenced by 52 goals scored with chances equal to 45.4 xG.

Ivan Toni removed the card

Leeds head coach Jesse Marsh, who was sent off in the second half as his team chased the game, would have been right to be a little concerned about the openness of his team’s defence at the Brentford public stadium.

The 2.59 xG they conceded was by far the most they have conceded so far this season, and is only slightly behind the most conceded during his tenure (2.73 against Arsenal and Manchester City).

Chelsea 2-1 West Ham
Ben Chilwell, who came on as a substitute, scored a goal and then assisted Kai Havertz, in a game with a small number of moments when Chelsea went from goal to

The Blues can consider themselves incredibly lucky after Maxwell Cornet failed to equalize the score in the match with West Ham, which, according to the ratio of chances created, deserved something in the match.

Newcastle 0-0 Crystal Palace

Crystal Palace somehow pulled away from Newcastle with a point thanks to goalkeeper Vicente Guaite, who made a series of excellent saves.

The best of the many opportunities fell to the share of the club’s record signing of a contract for 58 million pounds by Alexander Isak (0.74), who was denied when going one-on-one. He alone created chances equal to 1.25 expected goals, while the Swedish striker also missed a chance with a probability of 44% at the end of the match.

In a match in which the total score was 4.75 xG, the probability that the match would end with a score of 0:0 was only 1%, with Newcastle more likely to score six goals than none, based on the chances created.

Newcastle goals against Palace

Kouyate 33′, Johnson (pen) 45, Billing 51′, Solanke 63′, Anthony 87′
Although we usually keep the verdict on each match separately, it is impossible not to note the connection between Newcastle and Bournemouth when it comes to goals scored.

The Cherries bounced back with two goals at half-time and won 3-2 against Nottingham Forest, a week after a 9-0 defeat by Liverpool, which gave interim coach Gary O’Neill’s boss a chance for a permanent role.

But while this will be a story for most, from xG’s point of view it all came down to how unlikely this comeback was.

Bournemouth goals The

probability that Bournemouth would score three times was only 4.8% with chances equal to 0.89 xG – a stunning overachievement from which Forest felt the brunt.

According to Infogol, the probability that O’Neill’s wards will score one goal or less and, consequently, bring the home team all three points is 77.6%.

Tottenham 2-1 Fulham

Tottenham have extended their winless start to the season by continuing their impressive progress under Antonio Conte.

Spurs have lost just once in the last 17 league matches, but their main indicators for the entire time the Italian has been in office are staggeringly good.

In 34 matches, Tottenham are averaging 0.91 points per match, which means that on average they create almost 1.0 points more than their opponent for a series of games starting on November 10.

Fulham have never really participated in a game in North London, but that didn’t stop Aleksandar Mitrovic from continuing his incredible start to the season.

The Serb scored twice (6) more goals than in his last season of the top division with the Cottagers in the 2020/21 season, having played only six matches and scored just over half of the points (4.3).

Mitrovich ‘s Shot Map

Daniel Podens secured Wolves’ first Premier League win of the season in a game with few chances, scoring only the third goal of the campaign.

But Old Gold created chances equal to 7.3 xG, and they should be encouraged by the fact that debutant Sasa Kalaidzic realized the biggest opportunity in the match in the middle of the first period (54%).

Few things could separate the parties, and the low justice rating is a reflection of this fact.

Aston Villa 1-1 Man City

Erling Haland became only the second player in Premier League history to score 10 goals in the first six matches, but Manchester City could not count their dominance as Leon Bailey secured a much-needed draw for Aston Villa.

City were caught off guard by Bailey’s sizzling strike at the end of the match, ending a three-match losing streak for the under-pressure Steven Gerrard.